BFCM 2026 inventory planning: a timeline and checklist

Black Friday falls on 27 November in 2026, with Cyber Monday on 30 November. For most Shopify brands, that weekend is won or lost in August and September, when the purchase orders that will fill the shelves are placed. By the time the marketing calendar is locked in, most inventory decisions are already made.

This guide gives you a timeline counted back from Black Friday, a worked example of how much to buy, and a checklist for each stage.

Key takeaways

• Count back from the date stock must be received and put away, not from Black Friday itself. Your warehouse or 3PL will have a receiving cut-off weeks before the event.
• Rebuild last year's event demand from the days you were actually in stock. Sales during a stockout understate demand.
• Plan low, base and high scenarios. Commit to the base case and know in advance how you'd reach the high case.
• Buy for the whole period until your next delivery could land, not just the event weekend.
• Don't discount products you can't replace in time.

The 2026 calendar

If you're reading this in early August, you have about sixteen weeks. For products with long production and sea freight lead times, that's less time than it sounds.

Step 1: rebuild last year's demand honestly

Start with last year's event period, product by product. The trap is products that sold out. Their sales figure isn't demand; it's how much stock you had.

Example: last year a product sold 1,400 units during event week, but it sold out and was in stock for only 4 of the 7 days.

• Daily rate while in stock: 1,400 ÷ 4 = 350 units a day.
• Unconstrained estimate for the week: 350 × 7 = 2,450 units.

Treat that as an estimate, not a fact. Event demand isn't spread evenly — Black Friday and Cyber Monday themselves are usually the heaviest days — so if the days you missed were the quieter ones, the true figure is lower. Check which days you were out of stock before deciding.

Then apply your own growth assumption, based on your current run-rate against the same months last year rather than hope. With 10% growth: 2,450 × 1.10 ≈ 2,700 units for event week.

Step 2: plan the whole period, not just the weekend

The order you place now has to cover everything until your next delivery could arrive. Continuing the example, with a normal run-rate of 200 units a week and a 10-week lead time:

You have 3,000 units on hand and 1,500 on an open purchase order, so 4,500 in total.

order quantity = 7,400 − (3,000 + 1,500) = 2,900 units

Then round to the supplier's case pack and check the minimum order quantity. The December figure and safety buffer are assumptions — use your own history for both.

Step 3: set order-by dates from the receiving deadline

Work backwards from the date stock must be on the shelf. If your 3PL needs inbound stock received four weeks before Black Friday, that's 30 October. With a 10-week (70-day) lead time:

order-by date = 30 October − 70 days = 21 August

Do this for every supplier, using measured lead times from recent orders rather than what the supplier quotes. If you buy from factories in China, remember that the National Day holiday in the first week of October pauses production; ask suppliers to confirm whether their quoted lead time already allows for it.

Step 4: scenarios, not a single number

A single forecast for an event is false precision. Build three:

Buy for the base case. For the high case, decide now how you'd get the extra 700 units — a top-up from a faster supplier, air freight on a portion of the order, or a pre-order window for late arrivals — and note the date by which you'd need to trigger it. For the low case, know which products you'd move into January promotions.

Where a product has a minimum order quantity or a deep price break, the decision to buy toward the high case should be deliberate, made with the excess risk in view.

The timeline

16–12 weeks out (early August to early September)

• Pull last year's event sales by product and stockout-adjust them.
• Agree the promotional plan with marketing: which products, which discounts, which dates. Inventory and marketing need to be working from the same list.
• Build low, base and high forecasts.
• Place purchase orders for long lead-time products. Confirm production slots — factories get busy ahead of peak season.

12–8 weeks out (September)

• Place orders for shorter lead-time and domestic suppliers.
• Confirm ship dates in writing, and chase any purchase order without a confirmed date.
• Order packaging, inserts and shipping supplies sized for the base case plus a margin. Running out of mailers stops orders just as surely as running out of product.
• Plan bundles and gift sets, including the component stock they'll consume.

8–4 weeks out (October)

• Track every inbound purchase order weekly. Escalate anything at risk of missing the receiving deadline.
• Confirm your 3PL or warehouse receiving cut-off and peak capacity, and book inbound appointments early.
• Receive, count and put away stock as it lands. Move event products into easy-to-reach pick locations.
• Decide your pre-order or backorder policy for products that might sell out: will you keep selling with a later ship date, or stop?

4–1 weeks out (November)

• Freeze the event product list and prices.
• Recheck days of cover for every promoted product against the base forecast. Drop or limit the discount on any product that can't cover the high case.
• Set stockout alerts for event products and decide who watches them on the day.
• Brief customer service on expected ship dates and any pre-order products.

Event week

• Check stockout risk at least daily. Pause paid ads on products that are about to run out, rather than paying to send customers to a sold-out page.
• Shift promotion toward products with healthy cover.
• Log stockouts as they happen, with times. You'll need them next year.

After the event (December)

• Reorder for December and January demand based on what actually sold, not the plan.
• Expect returns and plan for re-checking and restocking them.
• Compare actuals to the forecast per product while it's fresh, and write down what you'd change.

Common mistakes

• Planning from last year's sales without adjusting for stockouts. You'll buy for the stock you had, not the demand you had.
• Counting back from Black Friday instead of the receiving cut-off. Stock arriving on 25 November is stock you can't sell on 27 November.
• Discounting your scarcest products. If a product will sell out at full price, a discount gives away margin and brings the stockout forward.
• Ignoring January. Peak-season buying often leaves little cash or stock for the first weeks of the new year.

Where Stokrio fits

Stokrio's demand forecasting excludes stockout days from demand history and lets you add event multipliers, fixed quantities or monthly targets for promotions, which flow straight into reorder quantities and order-by dates. The purchase orders inbound calendar shows deliveries due and orders to place over the next twelve weeks, with overdue POs called out — the view you'll want open every Monday between now and November.